BHUBANESWAR: While heavy rain has started in the Andaman Islands over the Bay of Bengal due to a cyclonic circulation, international weather forecasters anticipate that the system will build into a cyclonic storm and hit the Odisha coast either on the night of October 16 or early the next day.
According to Windy, a private meteorological service located in Czechoslovakia, and Skymet, a private weather agency based in India, the cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and its environs would intensify into a cyclonic storm.
The cyclonic storm is expected to make landfall between Puri and Paradeep on the night of October 16 or early the next day, according to the Windy forecast. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected across the north and central coastal Odisha and West Bengal as a result of its influence.
According to Skymet Weather Services, a portion of the low-pressure region that has formed over the South China Sea is most likely to merge with the low-pressure system that is expected to emerge over the North Andaman Sea and its environs. This will bolster the system’s ability to coalesce into a cyclonic storm.
In addition to commercial weather agencies, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that the system will make landfall in coastal Odisha, whether it is a low-pressure system or a cyclonic cyclone.
The cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and its environs is most likely to evolve into a low-pressure system over the same region within the following 24 hours on October 11, according to HR Biswas, Director, Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar. However, the cyclonic storm’s intensity and trajectory can be predicted 24 hours after the low-pressure system forms.
“Because the low-pressure region would be over the sea for 4-5 days,” Biswas said, “a clear image of its future intensification will emerge in the next 48 hours on October 13,” he added.
Well-known meteorologist Dr. Surendranath Pasupalak said that the cyclonic storm will march towards the Odisha coast, saying that the exact model of the system will emerge between 24-48 hours.
Dr. Sarat Chandra Sahu, former head of the Meteorological Centre in Bhubaneswar and now director of the SOA University’s Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) stated the cyclonic storm’s size will be known by October 12.
He stated that the current state of the Bay of Bengal and the atmospheric conditions on the land surface are conducive to the formation of a cyclonic storm, but that the cyclonic storm’s movement and intensification, as well as the precise location of its landfall and impact on Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, can only be determined after the formation of a low-pressure area.
“Whether it’s a cyclonic storm or extremely heavy rainfall, it’ll happen on October 16 or the next day,” Sahu said.